Thursday, July 30, 2015

Dave Computes Players-Per-Street Statistics in Hold'em Poker

This data is based on a simulation of 100,000 hold'em poker deals with 5 players, with a cap of one pot-sized raise per round (to allow a large number of hands to complete in 8 hours).  Although the player strategies were probably far from optimal, I believe that the play frequencies computed at the end of 100,000 deals are probably fairly accurate.

19% of deals are decided preflop.
32% of deals are decided on the flop.
18% of deals are decided on the turn.
31% of deals are decided on the river.

On the flop, 47% of deals are heads-up, 27% are 3-way, 6% are 4-way, and 1% are 5-way.

On the turn, 38% of deals are heads-up, 9% are 3-way, 2% are 4-way, and 0% are 5-way.

On the river, 24% of deals are heads-up, 6% are 3-way, 1% are 4-way, and 0% are 5-way.

Since 100% of deals are multi-way preflop, it's important to know preflop play cold.
The next most common situations are a heads-up flop (47%), a heads-up turn (38%), a 3-way flop (27%), a heads-up river (24%), a 3-way turn (9%), a 3-way river and a 4-way flop (6%).

In other words, improve your heads-up flop/turn play before worrying about 3-way play, and 4-way play ought to be very rare.

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